Methods — Maverick Hightower
Maverick Hightower College Basketball
Methods · updated {{ updated }}

How the numbers are built

Every figure on this site comes from one of the steps below, in the order the card applies them. Each entry says what the thing is, how it is built, the formula where one fits in a sentence, and how sure we are of it. Nothing here is a claim of an edge: every graded pick, and how often our win chances came true, are on Our record.

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What it is

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How it is built

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What changed

Every change to how a number is built is dated here, because a record is only readable if you know what was being measured on each night.

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Three rules

  • A missing price stays missing. Nothing on the board is ever filled in, and a game the model refuses to price is shown as not priced, never as a pass.
  • A number is checked against what happened before it is believed. Where a check can only rule a method out, it is never read as ruling one in.
  • A market reaches the card only after it has been measured against real prices and a person has approved it in writing. The card recommends; it never places a bet.

The full ratings table, every team in Division I, is the Ratings view of the Season page. Each game's page shows the steps as they were applied to that game.

The lab's own documentation names its sources and every measurement behind these entries; this page gives the method, not the credit.

The site recommends; it never places bets.